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Library's collection Library's IT development CancelThis research especially talking about middle exchange rate Rp/US$'s
behaviour since the released of intervention band on August 1997 until October
1998. The reasons of this research are the weak of regional currencies exchange
rate, speculation attack, the weak of banking system and monetary, the exceed of
foreign debt and deficit on balance of payment, and unconsistenlly government's
policies.
The objectives of this research is to knowing the fluctuation of Rp/US$
exchange rate in period August 1997 until October 1998; the macroeconomics
variables like GDP, rupiah and US$ interest rate, changing of money supply,
inflation, foreign reserves, export, import, YEN/US$ exchange rate, non
economics events; and the relation of those variables above to Rp/US$ exchange
rate.
Based on Hamdy Hady's theory about factors which are influencing
demand and supply foreign exchange, this research resulted one hypothesis that is
economic variables shown by export, import, changing of money supply, rupiah
and US$ interest rate, inflation, GDP, foreign reserves, YEN/US$ exchange rale
and non economic events can be influencing Rp/US$ exchange rate since the
released of intervention band on August 1997 until October 1998.
The data which need to support the research arc using secundary data.
Data about Rp/US$ exchange rate, export, import, changing of money supply,
rupiah and US$ interest rate, GDP, YEN/US$ exchange rate and foreign reserves
are take from "Statistik Ekonomi Keuangan Indonesia" published by Bank
Indonesia. Inflation rates are take from "Indikalor Ekonomi" published by Biro
Pusat Statistik. The latest, data about US$ interest rate and non economic's events
are take from Bisnis Indonesia, the daily newspaper.
Using multiple regression analysis with stepwise method, resulted an
equation below:
KURSTENGRp/US$ - -2549,33 + 0,37EXP +115,88iUS$ + 1,30 YEN/US$
There is something interesting find in this research. This shows that only
export, US$ interest rate and YEN/USS exchange rate can be inlluencing Rp/US$
exchange rate in period August 1997 until October 1998. However the other
variables especially non economic's events which predicted can be inlluencing
Rp/US$ exchange rate in the first but the fact is unproved in this research.
Related with the equation above, I can say that this research is concluded as an
YEN/US$ era. Because at that period Rp/US$ exchange rate is influenled by
YEN/US$ exchange rate most.